"Newspaper shortage" basically eliminates the market to stabilize
On December 11, 2018, the annual meeting of China's newspaper supplies was held in Suining, Sichuan. According to data released by the China Press Association, the "newspaper shortage" problem that occurred in the first half of the year has been basically eliminated. This year, the supply and demand of domestic news paper is basically balanced, and the newsprint market tends to be stable.
The reporter learned that the total output of domestic newsprint this year was about 1.336 million tons, which was 164,000 tons less than last year's output, a decrease of 10.9%. From the perspective of inventory, the four major news paper mills have only a small amount of stocks by the end of this year. Due to the tight supply of domestic newsprint, foreign newsprints have entered China to seize the market, and the import volume is much larger than the same period last year. In order to cope with the “paper shortageâ€, newspapers have chosen to use imported paper. According to statistics, this year's newsprint imports are about 350,000 tons.
According to the recent survey data of the number of papers used by the China Press Association for the number of papers with a large amount of papers in the country in 2017 and 2018, there are 22 cases of paper consumption increased by 21.4% this year, with a decrease of 75. The ratio is 72.8%, of which 6 are flat, with a ratio of 5.8%. The 103 newspapers used a total of 1.053 million tons of paper in 2017, and the total paper consumption in 2018 was 985,000 tons. In 2018, the amount of paper used in 2017 decreased by 68,000 tons, down 6.5%. From the data point of view, this year's decline is the same as last year. Compared with the annual double-digit decline in previous years, the decline in these two years has been relatively small, and the paper consumption in China's newspaper industry has entered a small slow decline.
According to the data, the total supply of domestic newsprint and imported newsprint this year is about 1.68 million tons, and the total demand is about 1.661 million tons. The supply and demand are basically balanced. In the first half of the year, there was a shortage of supply, in addition to the lack of waste paper raw materials and other factors at home and abroad, but also because the newspapers worried about the emergence of "paper shortage", eager to snap up newsprint to increase inventory, which together caused the news paper market supply is extremely tight. situation. In the second half of the year, due to various unfavorable factors, the normal production of Hebei Huatai and Guangdong Huatai was resumed. Some newspapers had sufficient inventory to no longer purchase newsprint. At the end of 2018, the average inventory of national newspaper news paper was 1.5 months of inventory.
For the direction of the news paper market in 2019, Hu Huaifu, secretary-general of the China Press Association, said: “The demand for newsprint market will continue to decrease. The situation of the newsprint market remains stable with the existing four newsprint factories continuing to maintain normal production and raw materials. The tension in the supply of newsprint will be further alleviated. However, there are still many uncertainties in the newsprint market, and the newspaper industry should pay close attention to market changes."
According to the forecast data of the China Press Association, the total supply of domestic newsprint next year is about 1.57 million tons, and the total demand for the national newspaper industry is about 1.58 million tons. If the conservative estimate is expected to be about 150,000 tons of imported newsprint, next year. The newsprint market will supply slightly more than demand.
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