Weekly report of building materials industry: the recovery of cement demand in the busy season is weak, and steady growth is expected to continue to increase
Report summary:
A week's market review. This week, the stock market first suppressed and then rose. The Shanghai stock market fell slightly on the weekly market , while the Shenzhen stock market rose more than 1%. The building materials sector was positively affected by the policy on Wednesday, and the stock market rebounded sharply. The weekly yield was -0.78%. The cement price review and outlook for the week. This week, the national cement market price continued to fall, down 1.02% from last week. The falling areas mainly include Jilin, Liaoning in the northeast, Jiangsu, Shandong, Anhui in the east, and Henan and Hubei in the central and southern regions, with a range of 10-30 yuan/ton.
Among them, the northeast region was hit by foreign cement. The cement price for the first half of the year fell for the first time. The rest of the region was affected by the rainy season. The imbalance between supply and demand made most manufacturers choose to cut prices.
However, we believe that the macroeconomic downturn will lead to a policy overweight, which will lead to an investment turning point, and cement prices are expected to stabilize and recover in the future.
A week's glass price review and outlook. This week, the domestic float glass market fell into a downturn. The wind direction standard Shahe market manufacturers downgraded 3-5 yuan / weight box; affected by this, North China, East China, Central China and Southwest China and other original ex-factory prices have 1-7 yuan / weight box down, the Northwest region temporarily stabilized, only South China Some manufacturers in the region rose 1-2 yuan / weight box. In terms of photovoltaic glass, the prices of 0.5-2 yuan/square meter in North China, East China and South China have declined, and the inventory of major manufacturers continues to climb.
The coating market is increasingly competitive and the price is chaotic. We believe that the price of glass prices is limited, and we look forward to the trading opportunities in the glass industry brought about by the recovery of real estate demand.
Comments on important industry events: (1) The economic downturn and inflation have entered the “2†era, and the steady growth policy is expected to continue to increase. In July, the market expects a RRR cut. The continuous RRR cut and interest rate cut will bring about the expansion of credit and medium and long-term loans. On the other hand, the National Development and Reform Commission approved the project in May. According to traditional experience, it will enter after two months. At the stage of construction, the farmers will enter the traditional construction season after they have been busy. (2) The list of cement elimination backward production capacity was announced, and the western region became the focus of production capacity “slimmingâ€. On July 9th, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released the list of 19 industries in the industry to eliminate backward production capacity in 2012 (the first batch), including 103 cement enterprises, and planned to eliminate backward production capacity of 219 million tons, an increase of 43% over the same period of last year. (3) Entering the mid-term performance forecast Intensive period, pay attention to the first half of the building materials industry. This week, Jidong Cement, Chaodong Co., and Jiangxi Cement issued performance warnings. A total of 39 building materials companies issued interim results announcements. Due to the lack of overcapacity in the first half of the year, the performance generally declined year-on-year.
This week's strategic view "economic slowdown has prompted policy overweight, focusing on trading opportunities on the left side." In the third quarter, we entered the third phase of the annual “N†logic of our building materials market. With the emergence of policy inflection points and investment turning points, the profit turning point will also be opened. The key stocks are cement “four big diamonds†(Qilianshan, Conch Cement, Jiangxi Cement, Yatai Group), glass fiber “Gemini†(China Fiberglass and Changhai shares), glass “four small dragons†(Amarton, Qibin Group, Fangxing Technology, Jinjing Technology).
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