Multi-storey property market "quantity price rise" is expected to stimulate the ceramic sanitary ware market

Changes in the property market policy directly affect the overall demand and sales of ceramic products, which is a "barometer" for the sales of ceramics, which affects the nerves of manufacturers. At the beginning of 2012, Premier Wen Jiabao stated that he will continue to strictly implement and gradually improve policies and measures to curb speculative investment demand and promote a reasonable return of housing prices. The property market situation in the first quarter showed that the state did not relax the regulation of real estate, and the real estate developers all made surprises in promotion, but still failed to increase sales. This situation directly affected the sales of the ceramics industry, and “cold” became the key to the industry in the first quarter.

Multi-storey property market "quantity price rise" is expected to stimulate the ceramic sanitary ware market

Since the second quarter, many local governments have stimulated rigid demand in an attempt to boost the housing market. In particular, after the “May 1st”, news of fine-tuning of property policies across the country has frequently appeared. Some urban property sales data show that the real estate industry is entering the price drop. In the rising stage, sales have continued to rise. Real estate recovery has become a high probability event, which undoubtedly brought a dawn to the ceramics industry.

The property market fine-tuning policy is just beginning to dominate the Taowei market

Since last year, many local governments have fine-tuned the property market policy, but they have been suspended by emergency. After more than a year of sawing and running-in, the fine-tuning policies introduced by local governments are more inclined to the policy of the first home buyers, and stimulate the rigid demand while alleviating the negative effects of the high-rise policies of the property market.

In the second half of last year, in the context of the central property market regulation policy is not loose, Beijing, Shanghai, Hangzhou, Chongqing, Chengdu, Xiamen, Wuhan, Hefei, Nanjing, Changzhou, Jilin, Zhongshan, Changchun, Wuhu, Guangzhou, Conghua, etc. more than 15 The city fine-tuned the local property market policy, and stimulated the property market through land transfer, housing ban, tax incentives and housing subsidies; among them, Wuhu, Foshan, Chengdu, etc., because of the excessive adjustment, the policy was soon announced. .

Recently, a series of fine-tuning policies issued by local governments, including relaxing the standard of ordinary housing, raising the amount of provident fund loans, and relaxing the policy of purchasing houses. The series of preferential policies for the first home loan and the rational return of house prices have driven the property sales to continue to pick up. While improving the capital chain of the housing enterprises, the expectation of the relaxation of the real estate policy is also being realized.

According to relevant information, Wuhan, Nanjing, Nanchang, Shenyang, Guangzhou and other cities have recently raised the ceiling of the provident fund loan balance. Shenyang has shortened the time of deposit of the provident fund to encourage young workers to purchase their homes for the first time. The multi-site provident fund management center reaffirmed the first set of housing provident fund of less than 90 square meters. The minimum loan can be 20%, which greatly reduces the threshold for first-time home buyers.

In response to the downward adjustment of housing prices and the continued shrinkage of commercial housing transactions, Yangzhou City, Jiangsu Province issued a “bailout” policy. The Finance Bureau and the Housing Authority jointly issued a notice to reward individuals for purchasing finished housing, which will be implemented on July 1, 2012. The period is tentatively scheduled for one year, and different award lines are set according to the purchase area.

In addition to the fine-tuning of local government policies, major banks also lowered the down payment ratio and lowered the loan interest rate for the first suite.

Relevant people believe that the fine-tuning of the property market policies around the country, on the one hand, is in line with the spirit of the Central Economic Work Conference to expand domestic demand, while ensuring the effective release of the purchasing power of middle-income earners, and avoiding the effect of falling housing prices. On the other hand, after more than a year of regulation and control, the property has already squeezed out the original investment speculative demand, and the preconditions for fine-tuning the policy are already in place. Although the central government has adopted a tacit attitude toward the “fine-tuning” of the local government, it has imposed strict supervision on some obvious market-related behaviors such as disguised loosening of second-suite purchases, and there are cases where unreasonable policies are suspended. This is a rational return to housing prices, releasing rigid demand, and the property market is healthy and stable. Next, the property's regulation and control policies may be fine-tuned in a larger economic structure to adapt to the specific conditions of each region and better implement the spirit of the Central Economic Work Conference.

It can be seen that the direction of the directional easing policy for the property market's rigid demand for the first set of housing is clear, which is a great boon for rigid demand buyers. The state property control policy once allowed some people who were just in need but not "immediately needed" to calmly "wait and see" outside the property market, and bought a mindset that did not buy down, and also delayed their reluctance to release, and rigid demand was difficult to release. The introduction of the policy of rigid demand for home buyers, as well as the uncertainty of future property policies and economic policies by buyers, or the promotion of some buyers who are holding on to the currency “when they are shot, they will be shot”.

The property market "quantity rises and falls" Taowei industry or Yingguang

According to the newspaper's understanding of the real estate situation in various regions, most developers in the first half of this year focused on destocking, speeding up sales, and there are few new projects. In order to digest the stock, the price change has become the main market for the national property market. Thanks to the release of rigid housing demand and the sharp price cuts adopted by domestic first-line development companies, in March, the national property market transactions generally rebounded. Although sales in April fell, the signs of recovery began to appear after the May 1st.

According to World Union Real Estate monitoring data, among the 36 large and medium-sized cities, the transaction area of ​​most cities in April showed explosive growth year-on-year. Among the four first-tier cities in Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou, Shenzhen's transaction area increased by 58.2% year-on-year, Shanghai decreased by 4.6% year-on-year, Beijing increased by 44% year-on-year, and Guangzhou increased by 16% year-on-year.

The Bank of China International Finance Research Institute recently released a research report showing that in the first quarter of this year, due to multiple factors such as economic growth, credit tightening and purchase restriction policies, the property market experienced a phenomenon of “quantity and price falling”. In January-February this year, from the perspective of sales volume, the sales area of ​​commercial housing in the country was 70.04 million square meters, down 14.0% year-on-year, and the sales of commercial housing was 414.5 billion yuan, down 20.9% year-on-year, which was 18.9 percentage points lower than the cumulative growth rate in 2011. And in 19.9 percentage points, in February, 70 large and medium-sized cities saw a significant increase in house prices and a year-on-year decline in cities.

After February, under the influence of factors such as the gradual release of rigid demand, the real estate market in many cities showed signs of recovery. According to statistics, residential transactions in Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin, Chongqing and other cities have rebounded, and sales prices have continued to fall.

According to the research report, in the second quarter of 2012, with the further release of “rigid demand”, the temporary easing of policies, and the strengthening of financial support, the real estate market will shift from “quantity and price drop” to “quantity increase”. The real estate market will pick up further in the “price lag” or “micro price increase” stage. However, due to the concentrated release of inventory after the third quarter, the property market will still enter the downward channel of “quantity and price drop”.

In the second quarter, the demand for ceramic products is expected to continue to improve, driven by the rebound in real estate sales, fine-tuning of macro policies, and the resumption of infrastructure. According to the survey data of the National Bureau of Statistics, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the overall situation of building materials is also better than the first quarter.